Strategy
Hedging Strategy
When to lock in profit, when to let it ride.
Hedging means placing a counter-bet to reduce variance — usually before a futures bet's final leg.
When to hedge
Hedge when the locked-in profit is meaningful relative to your bankroll AND the EV of letting it ride is close to neutral.
The middling play
If a line moves significantly, you can sometimes bet the other side at a different number and create a 'middle' where both bets win.
The math
Calculate your guaranteed profit at each hedge size. If the EV of NOT hedging is significantly higher and you can stomach the variance, let it ride.
FAQ
Should I always hedge a Super Bowl futures ticket?
Depends on bankroll. If hedging guarantees a life-changing payout, hedge. If it's just a nice-to-have, the EV math usually says let it ride.
The friend-bet edge.
Every strategy on this page assumes you have records. Settled is the receipt for every bet you make with friends — no juice, no vig, just signed wagers between two people.
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