Strategy
Parlay Strategy
When parlays are smart, when they're a tax on hope.
A parlay multiplies the odds (and the variance) of multiple bets. Sportsbook parlays carry compounding juice. Friend-bet parlays don't.
Why most parlays are −EV
Each leg has the sportsbook's hold baked in. Stack four legs and you're paying juice four times. The implied probability is significantly worse than the true odds.
When parlays make sense
Correlated parlays (e.g. team wins AND covers the spread) and same-game parlays with positive correlation can have positive EV. Pure 4-leg moneyline mashes almost never do.
Friend-bet parlays
When you and a friend agree on a 3-leg parlay, there's no juice. The math is the math. Lock the wording in Settled before kickoff so 'almost' doesn't become a debate.
FAQ
Are same-game parlays bad?
Not always. Correlated SGPs can be +EV — uncorrelated long-shot SGPs almost never are.
How does Settled help with parlays?
The bet wording is locked when both sides sign. Every leg, every condition, every push rule.
The friend-bet edge.
Every strategy on this page assumes you have records. Settled is the receipt for every bet you make with friends — no juice, no vig, just signed wagers between two people.
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