Strategy
Expected Value (EV) Betting
The math behind every long-term winning bettor.
EV is the average outcome of a bet if it were placed an infinite number of times. Bet only when EV is positive and you'll win in the long run, regardless of short-term variance.
The formula
EV = (probability of winning × payout) − (probability of losing × stake). Anything above zero is +EV.
Where +EV actually lives
Sportsbooks bake juice into their lines (typically -110/-110), giving the house a ~4.5% edge. Friend-bets, by contrast, almost always have zero juice — making them the highest-EV environment most bettors will ever access.
How to apply it
Track your closing line value (CLV), keep records of every wager, and compare your projected probabilities to the implied probability of the line. Settled gives you the receipts to do this with friend-bets.
FAQ
Do friend-bets really have higher EV than sportsbook bets?
Yes. There's no juice, no hold, no vig. If you and a friend agree on -110/-110 odds, that's actually a 50/50 payout — not the 47.5/47.5 a sportsbook would give you.
Does Settled compute EV for me?
Settled records the bet exactly as you and your friend agreed it. From there you can apply your own EV math to your wager history.
The friend-bet edge.
Every strategy on this page assumes you have records. Settled is the receipt for every bet you make with friends — no juice, no vig, just signed wagers between two people.
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